Bets from the experts - NYT Crossword Clue

Introduction

Today's clue, "Bets from the experts," is a great example of how the NYT Crossword uses common idiomatic phrases. It's not a literal definition but points us toward a well-known term from the world of finance and gambling. Let's break down how to arrive at the answer.

Clue Analysis

The clue can be deconstructed into two key parts:

• "Bets": This word immediately brings to mind wagers, stakes, or investments. In a broader sense, it's about putting capital at risk with the expectation of a positive return.
• "from the experts": This qualifier is crucial. It tells us these aren't just any random bets; they are informed, strategic, and made by people with deep knowledge or inside information.

Putting these two ideas together, we're looking for a term that describes money wagered or invested by knowledgeable people. The clue is asking for the name of this type of investment capital.

Thinking Approaches

A solver could tackle this clue in a few ways:

1. Direct Association: The phrase "bets from experts" might immediately trigger the correct idiomatic phrase in your mind if you're familiar with financial jargon.
2. Synonym Substitution: If the answer isn't immediately obvious, you can try breaking down the clue into synonyms.
   • What's another word for an "expert"? Intelligent, clever, sharp, professional, or smart.
   • What's a common word for what you "bet"? Cash, capital, funds, or money.
   • Now, try combining these synonyms. "Professional capital"? "Intelligent funds"? "Smart money"? The last one clicks as a very common, established phrase.
3. Using Crossings: If you have a few letters from other clues, they can be a huge help. For instance, if the answer starts with 'S' and ends with 'Y', and you see a space for a two-word answer, SMART MONEY becomes a very strong candidate.

Background Context

The term smart money refers to the capital invested or wagered by those who are considered to be experienced, well-informed, or "in the know." This includes institutional investors, hedge funds, and other financial professionals. The concept is that these "smart" investors have better information and are more likely to be successful than the general public or "dumb money."

The phrase is often used to describe a consensus among experts about a likely outcome, as in, "The smart money is on the home team to win."

Conclusion

This clue is a well-crafted piece of misdirection. It uses simple words, "bets" and "experts," to point toward a specific two-word financial idiom. By thinking about the implication of the words rather than their most literal meaning, solvers can successfully navigate to the answer, SMARTMONEY. It's a satisfying solve that rewards knowledge of common English phrases.

Hints

1. Hint 1: A phrase describing informed investment.
2. Hint 2: It's often said that this type of capital "is on" a particular outcome.
3. Hint 3: The first word in the answer is a synonym for intelligent.
4. Hint 4: The second word is what you wager or invest.